On February 24, 2021 Sung-Eun Jun, Oxford Economics country economist, spoke in a virtual workshop facilitated by ARISE+ Indonesia for Bappenas (the Ministry of National Development Planning) on Indonesia: Delayed Growth Recovery amid Prolonged Coronavirus Outbreak. She indicated that Indonesia's economic outlook hinged much upon the evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic.
"More steady, persistent declining of Covid-19 cases would help domestic demand pick-up, revive the consumer confidence, and upgrade our growth forecast for 2021," Sung said.
Around 40 economists and officials from BAPPENAS and cross-government institutions actively participated in the workshop to examine Oxford Economics' latest analysis on growth factors, and provided their insights.
Some of the factors that will mostly influence Indonesia's economic performance in 2021 are private spending, which is yet to pick up strongly; domestic demand, which remains the main drag on growth; and the condition of Indonesia's deficit.
But as commodities exporting country, such as coal, there is a possibility for Indonesia to recover its pre-pandemic export value during the year.
"Export, we expect to recover strongly this year on the back of strong economic growth of China and United States," Sung added.
According to Sung, some risks are still skewed to the downside of GDP growth. For example, a global lockdown could seriously impede economic growth.
Following her presentation, a lively discussion between Sung and Bappenas' staffs occurred. One of the staffs said that Sung's economic forecast almost similar to the Bappenas' economic team has.
Discussion forums with Oxford Economics country economist for Indonesia are set to take place every quarter and part of ARISE+ Indonesia technical support to BAPPENAS on economic modelling and forecasting.
